******** Datafile: APPENDIX REPLICATION FILE FOR Embargoes, Weapons and Violence: The Conditional Effects of Arms Embargoes on Civilian Targeting - 2024 **********************
// (Results are rounded:bdec(3) sdec(3) rdec(3))



******** Table A1: Summary Statistics ***************
summarize One_sidedviolence embargofull_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag

**********Table A2:Correlation Matrix Correlation Matrix **************
pwcorr One_sidedviolence embargofull_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag, sig


********Table A3.  Analyzing Impartial Arms Embargoes, MCW Flows, and Other Economic Sanctions
* Model 6
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sanc_imposed_zero_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
* Model 7
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sanc_imposed_zero_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
* Model 8
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sanc_imposed_zero_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
* Model 9//check
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sanc_imposed_zero_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if IntrastateBinary ==1, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)

* Model 10
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sanc_imposed_zero_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if IntrastateBinary ==1, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)


********Table A4: Impartial Embargoes, MCWs and Civilian Killings Across All States
*Model 1
zinb One_sidedviolence embargofull_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag , inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 2
zinb One_sidedviolence embargofull_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
* Model 3 
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
* Model 4
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)


********Table A5: Impartial Embargoes (Controlling for Conflict Intensity)
*Model 1
zinb One_sidedviolence embargofull_yes_lag L2Battledeaths_Best polity2   ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate(polity2  ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 2
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag L2Battledeaths_Best sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2  ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate( polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 3
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag L2Battledeaths_Best sa_yes_lag polity2  ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate(polity2  ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)

********Table A6: Impartial Embargoes and Rebel-perpetrated One-sided Violence

*Model 1
zinb rebel_osv embargofull_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 2
zinb rebel_osv i.embargofull_yes_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 3
zinb rebel_osv i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)




//New Variables for Reverse  and Granger Causality 
//gen L1Embargo= l.embargofull_yes_lag
//gen L2Embargo= l.L1Embargo
//gen L1osv= l.One_sidedviolence
//gen L2osv= l.L1osv

********Table A7: Logit Model -Reverse Causality 
xtlogit embargofull_yes_lag L1osv L2osv, i(group_id)


********Table A8:Granger Causality test

*H1: Full Embargoes do not granger-cause OSV 
			//logit embargofull_yes_lag L1osv L2osv L1Embargo L2Embargo 
			
xtlogit embargofull_yes_lag L1osv L2osv L1Embargo L2Embargo, i(group_id)
testparm L1osv L2osv

*H2: H2: OSV doesnot granger 
xtreg One_sidedviolence L1Embargo L2Embargo L1osv L2osv, i(group_id)
testparm L1Embargo L2Embargo

********Table A9: Impartial Embargoes, MCWs and Civilian Killings: Excluding Outliers 
//(These models exclude all observations where the DV (one-sided violence) exceeded the 95th percentile at the 6k threshold)

*Model 1
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1 & One_sidedviolence<6000, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 2
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1 & One_sidedviolence<6000, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 3
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if IntrastateBinary ==1 &  One_sidedviolence<6000, inflate( polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 4
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if IntrastateBinary ==1 &  One_sidedviolence<6000, inflate(polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)


********Table A10: Impartial Embargoes, MCWs and Civilian Killings: using GDP per Capita


*Model 1
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 2
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 3 
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if IntrastateBinary ==1, inflate(polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag) vce(robust)
*Model 4
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if IntrastateBinary ==1, inflate(polity2 ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 gdpcap poplog_lag) vce(robust)


********Table A11: Matching Model: Entropy Balancing Regression Impartial Arms Embargoes and MCW Flows
//ssc install ebalance
//ebalance embargofull_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 		  	   IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag, gen(weight2) tolerance(0.52)

*Model 1
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq  if civilwar_yes ==1 [pweight=weight2], inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)

*Model 2
zinb One_sidedviolence i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1 [pweight=weight2], inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)


********Table A12: GSDB Analysis Arms Embargoes and MCW Flows

*Model 1
zinb One_sidedviolence i.GSDB_arms_embargo_lag sa_yes_lag MCW_import_state_zeros_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)

*Model 2
zinb One_sidedviolence i.GSDB_arms_embargo_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate( polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)

********Table A13: Controlling for Five-year Moving Average of Government Civilian Killings

 //tssmooth ma One_sidedviolence5 = One_sidedviolence, window(5 1 0)
//The smoother applied was by group_id : (1/6)*[x(t-5) + x(t-4) + x(t-3) + x(t-2) + x(t-1) + 1*x(t)]; x(t) One_sidedviolence

*Model 1
zinb One_sidedviolence One_sidedviolence5 i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq , inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)

*Model 2
 zinb One_sidedviolence One_sidedviolence5 i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq if civilwar_yes ==1, inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)

	 
********Table A14: Controlling for Physical Integrity Rights (CIRI dataset)	 

//gen L_ciri_PHYSINT = L._ciri_PHYSINT
zinb One_sidedviolence  L_ciri_PHYSINT i.embargofull_yes_lag##c.MCW_import_state_zeros_lag sa_yes_lag polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag embargofull_seq_sq , inflate(polity2 IntrastateBinary ethfrac lrexclpop regchg3 TradeOpen2 poplog_lag) vce(robust)


	 
	 
	 
	 
	 
